How to Use Trading Confluences to Build a Higher-Probability Setup

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ยท based on the channel TJR
Key takeaways
- A confluence is a second, independent reason to take a trade โ not a duplicate of the first one.
- TJR's 18-minute breakdown covers liquidity, fair value gaps, inverse FVGs, equal highs/lows and break of structure.
- More confluences are not automatically better: each one must add information your entry does not already contain.
- A practical checklist caps setups at three to four stacked factors and requires a predefined invalidation level.
- Screenshotting winners without recording losses creates a false sense of edge and hides the real win rate.
Trading with confluences means waiting until two or more independent signals โ such as a liquidity sweep, a fair value gap and a break of structure โ point at the same price zone before you risk capital. Instead of hunting for a single perfect indicator, you build a short checklist of factors that must line up, and you skip every setup that only half-fits. TJR's video "Learn Every Trading Confluence In 18 Minutes" walks through the main building blocks of that checklist, and the same framework is outlined in the free trader blueprint at go.tjrtrades.com/blueprint-nviugv1.
What a trading confluence actually is and why stacking them matters
A confluence is a second reason to enter that does not repeat the first reason. If your entry signal is a fair value gap and your "confirmation" is the same gap drawn on a lower timeframe, you have one confluence, not two. Real stacking means combining evidence from different categories: where price is (structure), what price just did (liquidity), and how price left that area (displacement and imbalance).
This is why the most liked comment under the video insists that the key is knowing which confluences add value to a strategy. Ten weak signals do not equal one strong one, and a chart covered in lines is usually a chart where the trader is negotiating with themselves. A workable rule is that every added factor must either improve the entry price or reduce the number of losing trades โ if it does neither in your journal, it is decoration.
The five price-action confluences covered in the breakdown
These are the components TJR groups under the confluence umbrella, and each one answers a different question about the chart.
- Liquidity. Pools of resting orders sit above equal highs, below equal lows and around obvious swing points. Price is often drawn to those pools before continuing, so a sweep of liquidity tells you where stops were taken rather than where the trend began.
- Fair value gap (FVG). A three-candle imbalance where the wick of the first candle and the wick of the third do not overlap. It marks an area where price moved so fast that one side of the book was not filled, and it often acts as a magnet on a return visit.
- Inverse fair value gap. When price trades through an FVG instead of respecting it, the same zone flips role: former support becomes resistance, or the reverse. The flip is the signal that the imbalance failed as a continuation tool.
- Equal highs and equal lows. Two or more swings at nearly the same price create an obvious level that attracts retail stop orders. Treat them as liquidity targets, not as unbreakable walls.
- Break of structure (BOS). A close beyond a prior swing high or low that confirms the direction of the current leg. A break without displacement is weak; a break that leaves an FVG behind is the version worth trading.
None of these is a strategy on its own. The value appears when, for example, price sweeps equal lows, displaces upward leaving an FVG, and then breaks a minor structure โ three separate facts pointing the same way.
How to rank confluences by the value they add
Ranking confluences is the step most traders skip, and it is the step that separates a checklist from a collection of indicators. Score each factor on two questions: does it change where my stop goes, and does it change how often I am right?
A simple way to start is to log every trade with the factors that were present, then compare win rate and average risk-to-reward for setups with two, three and four confluences. In most journals the curve flattens after three or four factors, which means extra conditions are cutting trade frequency without improving expectancy. Context matters too: a liquidity sweep into a higher-timeframe FVG carries more weight than the same sweep in the middle of a range, and structure on the higher timeframe should outrank structure on the one-minute chart.
A repeatable confluence checklist you can trade
A checklist works only if it is short enough to run in under a minute and strict enough to reject most charts. Here is a structure that mirrors the factors in the video.
- Step 1 โ Mark the map. On the higher timeframe, note the last break of structure and the nearest pools of equal highs or equal lows.
- Step 2 โ Wait for the sweep. Let price take the liquidity at that pool; do not enter into the level before it is touched.
- Step 3 โ Look for displacement. A fast move away from the sweep that leaves a fair value gap is the strongest confirmation that the sweep was a trap.
- Step 4 โ Confirm with structure. A minor break of structure in the new direction, or a retest of the flipped inverse FVG, gives you the entry trigger.
- Step 5 โ Define invalidation before entry. The stop belongs beyond the sweep, not at a round number, and the target is the next liquidity pool or imbalance.
- Step 6 โ Log it. Record which confluences were present so the ranking in the previous section has data behind it.
If any step is missing, the trade is a pass. Skipping setups is the part of the process that feels unproductive and is actually where the edge lives.
Common questions and doubts from traders using confluences
The most frequent doubt is whether more confluences mean a better trade. They do not: past three or four factors you are usually re-counting the same information, and the cost is fewer entries with no measurable gain in expectancy. The second recurring doubt is about manipulation โ the idea that the market deliberately hunts retail orders. A more useful framing is that stops cluster in predictable places, and liquidity sweeps are simply price travelling to where the orders are; you can plan around that without assuming intent.
A third theme in the comments is the gap between watching breakdowns and becoming consistent. Notes from an 18-minute video can fill an hour, but screen time and a journal are what convert theory into a process. Traders also ask about risk-to-reward and discipline, which are not confluences at all โ they are the frame that determines whether a good confluence ever pays. Finally, be sceptical of screenshots of large weekly gains: selective posting hides the losing weeks, and no checklist removes the risk of loss in day trading.
Useful links
- Free trader blueprint: https://go.tjrtrades.com/blueprint-nviugv1
- Indicators used in the breakdown: https://go.tjrtrades.com/indicators-6qf6zb4
- Funded account raffle entry: https://form.tjrtrades.com/funded-contest
- Alpha Futures funded accounts, 10% off: https://app.alpha-futures.com/signup/TJR/
- Lucid Trading, 40% off: https://lucidtrading.com/ref/TJR/
Final thoughts on building a confluence-based process
Confluences are a filter, not a prophecy: they tell you when several independent facts agree, and they tell you nothing about the next candle. Pick three or four factors you can actually see in real time, define invalidation before entry, and let your journal decide which factors deserve to stay. The framework in TJR's 18-minute breakdown covers liquidity, fair value gaps, inverse FVGs, equal highs and lows, and break of structure โ enough to build a first checklist, not enough to replace screen time. If you want the structured version of that process, start with the trader blueprint and treat every rule as a hypothesis to test rather than a guarantee.
Questions & answers
How many confluences should a single trade have?
Most traders get the best balance with two to four independent factors, for example a liquidity sweep, a fair value gap and a break of structure. Beyond that, extra conditions usually repeat information you already have and cut trade frequency without improving expectancy. Track win rate and average risk-to-reward by confluence count in your journal to find your own ceiling.
What is the difference between a fair value gap and an inverse fair value gap?
A fair value gap is a three-candle imbalance that price left behind during a fast move and often returns to. An inverse fair value gap is the same zone after price has traded through it: it flips role, so former support can act as resistance. The flip is a signal that the imbalance failed as a continuation tool.
Do I need special indicators to trade confluences?
No. Liquidity levels, fair value gaps, equal highs and lows, and breaks of structure can all be marked on a plain candlestick chart. Indicators can speed up marking, but they do not create an edge on their own, and a chart full of tools is often harder to read than a clean one with three or four levels.
Why do traders still lose money when their confluences line up?
A confluence raises the probability of a setup; it does not remove losing trades, and day trading carries a real risk of loss for most participants. Position sizing, a predefined stop beyond the sweep, and consistent execution decide whether a good read survives a bad streak. Selective screenshots of winning weeks hide that side of the process.
Source: Learn Every Trading Confluence In 18 Minutes ยท Markdown version